Violent Vs. Non-Violent Resistance

 All through history people have struggled against the rulers or the governments, some turned sour and failed some succeeded but created dictators that were far worse than the original ruler, some took the peaceful approach and some chose the armed and violent approach. Looking back at these struggles, what was the percentage of success of each approach and how to measure this success?

 Prof. Erica Chenoweth from the University of Denver's Josef Corbel School of International Studies answers these questions and more in her award-winning book " Why civil resistance works ", she defines the civil resistance as " a method of conflict in which unarmed civilians uses tactics like strikes, protests, boycott and other methods without physically harming their opponents, which could be more effective than armed conflicts in removing a leader or creating an independent territory".

The study explores the strategic effectiveness between violent and non-violent campaigns from 1900 till 2006, and came up with some amazing facts:

1 – Non-violent campaigns have scored 53% success rate compared to violent campaigns that only scored 26% success

2 – Repressive regimes are 12 times more likely to grant the non-violent campaigns some concessions more than the violent campaigns.

3 – Defections of security forces are more than 4 times more likely in non-violent campaigns

4 – Non-violent campaigns are 6 times more likely to fulfill complete success against repressive regimes.

5 – Non-violent campaigns are 4 times larger because all ages could participate thus reducing the risk calculation of security forces which will eventually lead to unlikely violent outcome.

6 – The non-violent campaigns could get the support of big corporates and investors which could lead to a faster compromise from the regime.

7- Societies that emerge out of a successful or even none successful non-violent campaigns are more likely to have democratic institutions with in 5 to 10 years and 15% less likely to lapse into civil war than violent campaigns with in the same period

3 images of world's greats whom led non-violent campaigns and succeeded, Prof. Chenoweth added that behind such successes came important reasons:

1 – Their commitment to non-violent campaigns enhanced their domestic and international legitimacy and encouraged more people to participate thus increasing the pressure on their governments which then started thinking about the economic and security impacts.

2 – Against violent movements the governments easily justify their violent moves, whereas against the non-violent movements, it could easily back fire on that particular government

3 – International condemnation could be an immediate result and that exactly what happened with South Africa which eventually gave in.

4 – leading a non-violent movement keeps the door open to negotiations, since these governments never sensed a threat towards their lives, and what better story regarding this point than Gandhi's refusal to go violent even after the Brits turned the Ameristar demonstrations into a massacre killing hundreds in 1919 and imprisoning him in 1922 and later the massive imprisonments of 60,000 people after the famous 1930 salt marsh were he and his followers covered walking as a protest to salt tax a distance of 241 miles,,,,, but finally the Brits gave up and signed the famous Gandhi -Irwin pact which basically Britain agreed to free all the political prisoners in return for the suspension of civil disobedience.

 

I could not help thinking while reading this great book, about Syria, 207,000 civilian deaths and 11 million left their homes to settle elsewhere , what if  Condoleezza Rice did not bring up the " New Middle-East idea" which sprung the Arab spring which resulted in a million deaths across the Arab world and is still harvesting lives, what if the Saudis, Turks, Qataris and Israelis did not arm the rebellion, and what if AL Assad forces did not use excessive force on the first day,,,,,the what if's could have been stopped if the people were more educated to learn from both studies and history that NON-VIOLENT resistance works better during and after the confrontations.

Trump's Strategy in the Middle-East Level 1

Trump's decision of withdrawing from Syria was not understood by a lot of people even by his secretary of defense whom resigned his post or at least did not know until Trump told him that he had other plans. Other plans!!! Yes the Trump administration have other plans probably Mattis did not agree with. To us in the middle-east it is very clear that the Americans do not want to be involved in any fighting a decision taken during the Obama period, so another strategy was put and was monitored.
This strategy is dived into 3 interconnected levels, the first is IRAQ and LEBANON, the second is SYRIA and YEMEN and finally the third level which is IRAN and RUSSIA, The Americans are focusing the time being on Iraq in an effort to reduce or completely weaken the Popular Hashed militia whom fought side by side with the Iraqi army against ISIS. This militia is close to Iran and Hezbollah and are a powerful political part of the Iraqi government and that's why Pompeo was there, to convince the Iraqi Prime Minister Mr. Abdul-Mahdi that the militia's should be ended and all it's heavy weaponry should be transferred to the Iraqi army.The same is true for David Hale's visit to Lebanon to ask the P.M Mr. AL-Hariri that Hezbollah cannot continue to be in the government and their heavy weaponry to be transferred to the Lebanese army.

The question is, are the American demands realistic in both Iraq and Lebanon? of course not, and that is why they sent a message to both countries that there will be further economic and monetary sanctions on both militia's as a whole and also against whoever deals with them, both militia's are  very effective in the Syrian war joining Al-Assad forces in many fronts. Usually the Americans take certain steps as an introduction or a necessary steps in their way to the final goal. So what could be their final goal?

If you guessed that it has something to do with Israel, you guessed right. Ever since Israel discovered natural gas in it's shores it tried hard to expand it's distance towards the Lebanese international sea boarders and without an agreement with the Lebanese the investors will not show up, and if Israel would intimidate the Lebanese by drilling in what they say it is Lebanese sea boarders then Hezbollah will definitely strike those locations and the Iraqi Hashed militia has announced that if this case occurs then they will fight alongside Hezbollah. 

The case of open fire between Lebanon and Israel is not what the Americans and the Israeli wants so that is why they are trying other means and one of those means was encouraging the Lebanese P.M to continue halting the establishment of the government which has been halted for months now in an effort to put pressure on Hezbollah and the President Aoun whom is an ally with Hezbollah to prevent any majority for Hezbollah allies in the government whom will Vito any compromise with any agreement with Israel to draw sea and land boarders.

So what has this  to do with the American withdrawal from Syria?  The withdrawal is a clear message from the Americans that the US will not be engaged in any fighting in the middle-east any more, but this does not mean that America is out for good rather it will play a pressure game threatening here or there using economic or monetary means to achieve their goal or even produce a new Arabic spring to spread chaos on top of the one that already exists

in the next episode i will discuss level 2 of Trump's strategy in the middle-east. 

Trump's New World Order

I wonder if you Americans are as confused as we are in the Middle-East with regards to President Trump's actions? Since his inauguration his actions were far left , then far right then turns in a circle, I mean we just cannot figure him out!!!  His allies became his enemies and his enemies became all of a sudden his friends that he admires, I can claim that I analyze world affairs and put a number of predictions that usually comes spot on in a few months time, but with Trump i failed big time in trying to predict what would be his next action, one thing for sure is that when he announces something like meeting the North Korean leader, he usually does it even if does not make sense.

Only a few days back i came upon a fantastic issue of the recent New Yorker, and yes we in the Middle -East are reading and watching more US newspapers and CNN in order to understand what is going on, the front page looked this way

"Trump's new world order" now this makes perfect sense !! This does not apply only to the US foreign policy towards the Middle-East but also applies to all of his actions. Now we know it is not written anywhere as a text but we can deduct from the actions where is this new world order leading to. Four major decisions this administration took, first relocating the US embassy to Jerusalem which triggered out rage in the Middle East even in Arab and Muslim allies countries, Secondly applied tariffs to Chinese and European imports which made both parties decide on retaliatory actions against the USA, thirdly the Humiliation of the prime minister of America's closest ally that is Canada, and finally Trump's meeting with the North Korean leader which only a month ago seemed impossible. The question would be " Is this stupidity or is it a calculated risk for a huge cause?and how would these actions fit in the NEW Yorker's headline Trump's new world order?

The Middle-East has got everything to do with this new world order, Iran's nuclear deal & the Arab -Israeli conflict, the first was ignited by Trump's sort of withdrawal from the accord with the help of Israel and the Saudi money, since the Saudi's have now big ambitions in the region they can find no rivalry except Iran which has to be pushed back into the sanctions to prevent it from taking a bigger role in the region. Then the problem rose from the Europeans since they have over a billion dollars trade with Iran especially gad and oil , and they opposed Trump's new even harsher sanctions on Iran,this in a way unified the Europeans whom started criticizing Trump's administration.

On the other hand the Arab-Israeli conflict is taking a new turn with the Saudis and Israelis working together to accomplish the "Deal of the Century" which is the other name for the American peace plan which states that a new home for the Palestinians will be made in the Sinai desert and Jerusalem will be in total the Israeli capital. This plan is rejected by a lot of countries in the region, but with the Saudi money, the American pressure and the Israelis executing the plan they feel confident they can do it. 

A major war is imminent in the region even if the Russians decided to pull out from the Middle East, to reshape the map of the countries or better still to reshape the new world order. 

Trump does not want allies any more, he wants followers and using these economic measures would be the reward if you follow and tariffs if you do not, the new world order is nothing but a new empire that will extend its hands all over the world something like the Trump hotel chain.   

Trump's Flounder

It is essential that the American public knows what is happening in the world because the decisions taken by the US President and Congress affects the whole world, so we in the middle -east wish that the American people not only hold their President accountable for domestic issues but for foreign issues too. Today there are several issues to talk about and in a sense, they are related, N. Korea, French elections, Yemen and South Lebanon, and although they are miles and miles apart but they are inter-related.

On Twitter, Trump warned: “North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.”

But after a brief but bracing war scare, national security adviser H.R. McMaster and Defense Secretary James N. Mattis swooped into moderate the commander in chief. "It's time for us to undertake all actions we can, short of a military option, to try to resolve this peacefully,” McMaster, said on Sunday. “We are working together with our allies and partners and with the Chinese leadership to develop a range of options" In other words, the US wants the Chinese assistance in offering the N. Koreans a basket of solutions to disarm their nuclear arsenal. The Americans have reached the conclusion that since Obama's idea of "strategic patience" did not work and a conflict with N. Korea is costly keeping in mind how resilient they are, facing very tough sanctions unlike any other that occurred, that started in 2006, they also have built a very strong army and intelligence systems, all of these reasons combined makes the conflict with N. Korea remote, so the next step would be a treaty similar to that singed between Iran and the US.

Europe's political mood is certainly shifting to the right and the French first round elections singled out Marine Le Pen far right wing and Emmanuel Macron left wing, and although Le Pen is close to Trump's ideas yet she is supporting France withdrawal from the EU and is closer to Russia. Her statement of supporting Russia and Assad in fighting terrorism is clear, which makes it obvious that Macron is Washington's favorite. Yet once again Trump' tweeted following Friday's incident in Paris "Everyone is now saying how right I was with illegal immigration and the wall," although he did not name her yet his indication is supporting Le Pen's ideas, which should be in contradiction to the US and all of its allies' choice, and gives confused signals to the French voters.

Unlike the previously mentioned cases, Trump was very clear when he sent the Defense Secretary James Mattis to Saudi Arabia showing support to the Saudi's and the same time encouraging them to push for peace. Mattis dis-encouraged the Saudi's from attacking the Houthis strong hold at Al-Hodeida port because simply the Americans will find themselves obligated to support the Saudi troops which is something the Americans do not want to do and were clear about it.

Finally, in a very rare and almost for the first-time Hezbollah took a group of journalists to the Israeli border and even allowed them to interview some of the fighters in a show that they are still strong in South Lebanon and the Syrian war have not affected them, and added that they will punish Israel if it violates UN 1701 resolution which prohibits Israeli war planes from entering the Lebanese air space.

It seems that Trump's hands are full in the international arena, and he is not making easier on himself by tweeting contradicting massages and I do not blame him since he is new to all this and does not have past experience.

When we weave those events together the picture may be will look clearer. N. Korea is the main supplier of weapons and weapon technology to Iran and subsequently to Hezbollah and by coming to terms with N. Korea, the US can put their conditions on lifting the sanctions thus cutting the supply of arms to Iran and removing the threat to S. Korea and Japan the US allies in turn will considerably reduce the US military presence in the region. In the other hand the US does not want France a key player in the middle-east and Europe to shift towards Russia and change the French view towards the Syrian war if Le Pen wins the elections  but if not they will definitely support Macron whom already received the blessings of the Democrats when Obama called him.

It is a struggle to keep a balance away from the red lines of Yemen, Iraq where ISIS are collapsing and the Iraqis are not giving them a way out which will affect the balance in Syria which is the main focus.

You,them and I

Sometimes when you take an unwise decision you regret it and then try to fix the problem, but the damage is done and some of them are only a superficial wound that can be mended , but others are deep and beyond any repair.
Sir Issac Newton's third law of motion states " that every action has an equal and opposite reaction" this is true for our decisions too, for every decision there are consequences pointing in the other direction.Nevertheless Newton insists that the action and reaction are equal, so when you say "i did not mean to do that" i believe you and i know you are saying the truth, but that does not reduce the amount of action you applied or the size of the wound you caused. So next time you want to say something or do something towards other people, weigh your action and check its direction , you notice i added direction because those actions are dynamic so they are vectors having magnitude and direction, in other words , what you can say to an X person, cannot be tolerated by the Y person, so you have to check the direction of your actions.
Once the damage is done it is very hard to reduce its effects unless you direct your action towards the positive direction,like an apology which would offset the original damage,But what causes us to take drastic decisions without calculating the consequences? ANGER,,is the most damaging cause to any decision we make because it does not only limit our wisdom but also controls our limbs instead of our brains, spiritually talking, so anger is a power to be recon with and have to learn more about it, and that is not easy at all unless you are prepared spiritually.
I have been very very busy teaching in an extra ordinary college of aviation which drains all my power, yet i find it an opportunity to communicate with the boys and try to deliver not only technical knowledge and regulations but the true meaning of ourselves, consider it as adventure digging deep into us find the defects and try to fix it.I tell the boys the most important thing in college is to be disciplined because as you are abiding by the rules and requirements on the outside of yourself, what you are really doing is teaching your inside to brake anger, laziness,weakness and all the negative emotions.  

Finally a virtue is nothing but an equilibrium point, for example bravery is a virtue, yet if you go left a bit then it becomes cowardliness or go right and becomes recklessness so being in the middle you  are safe,and this holds true for all.To discover ones self makes him realize where exactly he stands. It is a struggle with ones self, make sure you come out victorious.   

MY VISIT TO IRAN

Probably by just mentioning the name Iran your thoughts will immediately goes to the nuclear deal and the revolution and other recent events, and that is wrong because this country is 2500 years old from the first Persian civilization led by Cyrus the great. My first visit to Iran was a few years back in January and i had no idea what to face there, so i landed in the Capital Tehran and it was snowing like hell which reminded of my beloved city in the USA Boston where i studied. For a man coming from the desert the weather cannot be better so much different, went to the hotel which was very nice,

Tehran is a typical middle eastern city with huge buildings and crowded, and you do not want to drive there , my goodness what a mess i mean a red traffic light does not mean anything for a few drivers. their food is what you have to try especially if you like kebab, they have tens of different kebabs may favorite was kebab sultani which was great and they are experts with yogurt drink they add mint to it slightly sour but if cold it is fantastic.this is the image.

I noticed that they have a good industry almost all of their electrical appliances like fridges, tv's is made in Iran including computers, also clothing's, cars and other things, my only problem was the language i do not speak Persian and few speaks English there although Tehran is much better than the rest of the country.

 My next stop was Qum i had no problem there at all almost everybody speaks Arabic over there, they must have over a million Iraqis there whom were deported at the Saddam Hussein era. their market is magic i mean the carpets bazaar, you have to see it to believe it, the designs , the colors the beauty is eye boggling, made from wool or silk the ones made of silk you hang on the wall and if you look at it from different angles it gives you different colors, you have the feeling you want to buy the whole market.

Also in Qum is the shrine of MASOUMA the sister of the 8th Imam of the Shiites , the architecture is old and beautiful and lots of gold in the building structure it is just majestic.This is the image

The next stop was Mashhad an hour flight from Tehran, now this is a city you should visit,it is the dream of millions because it has the shrine of the 8th Imam and the old market is just wonderful. this city is equipped nicely for tourists with hotels , restaurants and a big shopping places. i always prefer the old market which also have carpets and saffron because saffron comes from the Khorasen region which Mashhad is one of the cities, and that saffron is the best in the world by the way. what really encourages the tourists is that the prices are very reasonable especially if we know the Tooman or Riyal the Iranian currency is cheap if compared with the US dollar.

Finally you have to visit the shrine of Imam Mousa Bin Jafar it is magnificent and cannot be described by words, gold all over the place and glass designs from the inside, i have traveled a lot but i have never seen anything like it, and this is its image

  

A POEM BY A LEGEND

ANTARH IBN SHADAD IS AN ARABIC LEGEND WHOM LIVED IN THE ARABIC PENINSULA BORN 525 AD AND DIED 628 AD. ONE OF THE MIGHTIEST HEROES AND POETS, HIS FATHER WAS THE A TRIBE LEADER FROM BANI ABBS AND HIS MOTHER WAS AN ETHIOPIAN SLAVE, HE WAS MADLY IN LOVE WITH HIS COUSIN ABBLAH WHOM HE WROTE SO MANY POEMS ABOUT, HE BECAME FREE AFTER SAVING HIS TRIBE FROM ANOTHER THAT TRIED TO OCCUPY THEIR LAND, HE FINALLY MARRIED HER AFTER A LONG HARDSHIPS TO PERSUADE HER FATHER, HE DIED FIGHTING FOR HIS TRIBE. HIS POEMS WHERE HUNG ON THE KABBAH AND WRITTEN IN GOLD WATER AS THE ARABS DID FOR THE GREAT POETS. THIS IS ONE OF HIS SHORT POEMS ' OH DOVE YOU INFLAMED MY SORROW', HE WROTE THIS POEMS AFTER HIS LOVE LEFT WITH HER FAMILY, SO HE SAT UNDER A TREE AND HEARD THIS DOVE SINGING.

OH DOVE YOU INFLAMED MY SORROW, AND FILLED ME WITH PAIN

IF YOU ARE WEEPING FOR YOUR LOVE THAT LEFT, THEN WE CRY FOR THE SAME CAUSE

INCREASE YOUR WAILING AND MAKE ME HAPPY WITH SADNESS UNTIL YOU SEE WONDERS OUT FLOWING FROM MY EYES

STOP AND SEE WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME,DO NOT BE HASTY BUT BE CAREFUL FROM MY FLAMING BERTH

(1)NOW FLY OVER THE LAND OF HIJAZ . MAY BE YOU WILL SEE A CARAVAN NEAR ALIJ OR BEFORE NOAMAN.

HAVING A CRYING LADY WITH TEARS OF LONGING FOR FAR AWAY HOME AND NEIGHBORS

I BEG YOU OH DOVE , IF YOU SEE THEM OBITUARY ME

AND TELL THEM THAT I HAVE LEFT HIM FALLEN , HIS TEARS HAVE FINISHED AND HE IS CRYING BLOOD NOW.

(1) HIJAZ IS THE OLD NAME OF SAUDI ARABIA NOW
ALIJ IS A PLACE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
NOAMAN IS PLACE SOUTH WEST OF THE PENINSULA